The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Skydiving by Mishka

The Dunning-Kruger Effect, in psychology, is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals with limited experience or skill in a particular field assess their abilities as being higher than they actually are. On the flip side, people who have more competence often undervalue their skills, assuming others are just as capable. This gap in self-assessment can lead to overconfidence in beginners and unnecessary self-doubt in more advanced practitioners. This has long been used in common sayings “A little knowledge is a dangerous thing” and by writers, “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” (Charles Darwin).

Understanding how this bias plays out in skydiving can help beginners and experienced jumpers navigate the sport with the right mindset.

What it looks like in Skydiving

Skydiving, with its steep learning curve and life-threatening risks, can amplify the effects of this cognitive bias in both novice and experienced skydivers.

Beginners overestimating their skills

In the early stages of skydiving, it’s common for new jumpers to feel a surge of confidence once the fear diminishes (200-500 jumps). This can sometimes lead them to overestimate their abilities. In reality, skydiving demands complex freefall skills, situational awareness and good canopy control. Often new skydivers feel ready to tackle more advanced manoeuvres before they've truly developed the necessary skills. This increases the risk of accidents in freefall and canopy flight.

Risks of overconfidence: Skydivers who overestimate their abilities might skip essential intermediate training, take on advanced jumps without understanding the requirements, or even neglect safety procedures. This can lead to difficulty in maintaining safe proximity in freefall group jumps, unsafe break-offs, equipment malfunctions and canopy accidents. Based only on my personal experience in the sport (+23 years), I’ve seen that this "overconfidence zone" affects skydivers at different experience levels, depending on personalities, tunnel experience and jump numbers. I personally was there around my 1,000th jump. I made a low turn that led to a broken femur - and a new awareness of life’s fragility and finality.

Experienced jumpers underestimating their skills

On the other hand, experienced skydivers that have invested in learning freefall control, group flying, canopy control or various skydiving disciplines, can fall victim to the other side of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. As they become more aware of the complexities of the sport and the skills of other experienced skydivers, they may begin to undervalue their own abilities.

Risks of undervaluing skills: Undervaluing one’s skills can lead to unnecessary caution, preventing jumpers from taking on new challenges. It may lead to self-doubt, which can hinder growth and progression. By second-guessing their competence, skilled skydivers might take longer to progress into more challenging disciplines like head-down flying or dynamic flying, even when they're fully prepared.

How to avoid the Downing-Kruger Effect

• Be methodical, seek advice and use self assessment tools: One way to avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect in skydiving is by following a structured progression path. Our DSA freefly program (https://desertskyalliance.com/dsa-freefly-progression-program) is designed to guide you through the confusion that can arise when you’re first starting out. It provides a safe and methodical approach to advancing your freefall skills. You can fall into the trap of trying to specialise too early…. You don’t have to be perfect at each early stage or capable of doing everything before testing it out with friends. Seek advice from your coaches about when you would be ready to join small groups to test your new skills. Joining organised groups is one of the best self assessment tools you can use. Careful not to forget about advancing your canopy understanding too.

• Emphasise humility and continuous learning: Skydiving is a sport where learning is a never ending journey. By approaching every jump with a mindset of continuous improvement, you can avoid falling into the “overconfidence zone”.

• Embrace failure as part of the process: Mistakes and challenges are inevitable when learning new skills. Rather than letting failure affect your confidence, view it as a natural part of progression. This mindset helps prevent the risk of undervaluing skills, by avoiding being overly critical.

Final thoughts

The Dunning-Kruger Effect can affect skydivers at every level of their journey. Beginners might overestimate their abilities and take unnecessary risks, while experienced jumpers may undervalue their competence and hold themselves back. The key to overcoming this bias lies in self-awareness, seeking constructive feedback, and maintaining a mindset of continuous growth. Skydiving, at its core, is a sport where humility and learning are critical for both safety and progression. STAY SAFE, HAVE FUN, PROGRESS!